Will One Win Do It?

By Kartik Krishnaiyer
Canes Rising Staff

Conventional wisdom claims the Canes must win twice in the ACC Tournament to make the NCAAs. But with few if any upsets in mid major conference tournaments and Miami's solid RPI and SOS, the Canes may simply need a single win over Va Tech and a loss by Maryland in one of the first two ACC Tourney games to back into the tournament.

Most Bracket projections have Miami either in the field of 65 or in the last few teams out as it stands now. A victory over VT on a neutral floor coupled with the inveitable defeat of other fence sitters probably gets the Canes in the dance.

Of course two wins, considering the second one would be over Carolina would clinch a birth. Miami has won its first ACC Tournament game three consecutive years but has never won the second game, losing heartbreakers to Duke in 2006 and in OT to Boston College in 2007.

Daily RPI Update

Miami

RPI 44
SOS 10

Note: The strength of schedule will take a major drop after tonight as Georgia Tech is ranked 186th in the RPI and 234th in SOS Impact.

Miami now has a clean shot at the tournament. Every mock bracket I have seen this week has the Canes back in the field and with Maryland losing at home to Wake last night, the Terps now cannot win nine ACC games, a major fear of many Canes fans.

Virginia Tech faces UNC tonight and FSU this weekend. At 7-7, the Hokies it must be assumed will lose one of those two games.

Daily RPI Update

No change from yesterday. Miami's RPI remains #44 and SOS #10, although Notre Dame's home loss to Villanova probably ends the Irish's shot at an at-large bid.

The big night is Wednesday not only because of the Canes game in Atlanta, but also because of a number of other games. We'll preview those games tomorrow morning.

Daily RPI Update

Miami

RPI 44
SOS 10
Vs RPI Top 50 4-6

Perhaps this is completely undeserved but the likely hood that two wins this week puts Miami in the NCAA field even with a first round ACC Tourney loss (if the Canes face NC State not VT or Maryland) has increased.

Florida's already weak resume took a hit with a home loss to Tennessee. The Gators despite an impressive looking record have a horrible strength of schedule and both their road wins were against sub 1oo RPI teams, so they are in big trouble.

Michigan lost to Wisconsin and now has a daunting trip to the Barn to face Minnesota left.

Arizona's bubble seems to have burst also. With Georgetown coming on late, with a similar profile to Miami: tough non league schedule, difficulties in conference but a solid RPI, it is entirely possible this selection committee may have to bite the bullet and let a record number of teams from both the ACC and Big East to the dance this year.

Daily RPI Update

Miami

RPI: 45
SOS: 10


Saturday Miami got good news within the ACC but nothing but bad news outside the league. Florida State beat Clemson giving a team Miami played twice and beat once a win over a team Miami lost to at home. Duke also beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg due to what can only be described as a succession of bad calls that all went against the Hokies late. But as I said when Miami lost to UNC thanks to some interesting officiaiting late, ACC teams must know by now what situations not to place themselves in against Duke and Carolina. While it may not be fair, it all evens out for the league's other 10 teams because they all get the same raw deal.

Outside the ACC the day was disasterous for Miami and by extension for Maryland and VT. Oklahoma State beat Texas, a team that has no business being ranked and quite frankly is in everyone's NCAA bracket based on reputation and the lucky break of Blake Griffin's injury last week in Austin. Georgetown continued its late surge with a win over Villanova and Kentucky lost to LSU.

Today it is important for Miami to hope whomever losses the Florida-Tennessee game loses out and that Maryland loses to NC State.

As the week progresses we'll discuss why Miami fans should be rooting for FSU and BC to finish the season strong winning the rest of their games. The simple cheat sheet for ACC games is as follows:

Root for:

FSU
BC
Wake

Root against:

Maryland
VT
Clemson

• Miami beat Florida in baseball 2-1 yesterday in Gainesville. The Canes go for the sweep today at 1pm ET on SUN Sports.

Daily RPI Update

With Miami back on the bubble thanks to winning twice in the last week, beginning today until Miami loses again we'll be looking at the RPI each morning to determine where Miami sits.

Miami 2/27

RPI 44
SOS 9
Best wins: #19 FSU, #17 Wake
Worst Losses: @ # 86 NC State, @ #57 Maryland

Teams Miami is competing with for a bid:


Michigan RPI # 46 SOS 11
Florida RPI #42 SOS 94
Ohio State RPI #40 SOS 23 Ohio State beat Miami
Arizona RPI #49 SOS 39
Va Tech RPI #55 SOS 38 VT beat Miami
Maryland RPI #57 SOS 21 Miami and Maryland split two head to head games
South Carolina RPI #39 SOS 90
Kentucky RPI # 62 SOS 71 Miami beat Kentucky
Notre Dame RPI #71 SOS 47

Kartik Report: RPI Historical Data for Each D-1 School in Florida

The latest post at the Kartik Report

RPI Data historically for the state of Florida. Check it out!

RPI Update: Canes well positioned; Noles jump Gators

Well the panic attack we all had at about 2:50pm may not have been as well founded as originally feared. According to unofficial calculations, the Hurricanes will only fall to 27th in the new RPI rankings, still in prime position to snatch a decent NCAA seed and an at-large bid. The Canes will face either Boston College or North Carolina State on Thursday as Virginia the most dangerous team at the bottom of the conference will be the #10 seed. So if Maryland beats UVa tomorrow, the Terps face NC State, and the Canes face Boston College, while if UVa wins, the Canes face NC State. Last year Georgia Tech was in the very same position as the Canes, at 8-8 in the league. They lost to Wake Forest ranked #133 in the RPI poll in the first ACC Tourney game but still received an at-large bid.

In the meantime, Florida State has passed Florida in the RPI Index entering tomorrow's critical game for the Gators at Rupp Arena versus Kentucky. If you didn't notice already this should tell you the Gators are in serious jeopardy of missing the big dance for the first time in almost a decade.

The ACC Bubble: A Historical Look

Yesterday leaving the Bank United Center I heard lots of speculation about how many wins the Hurricanes need in ACC play to make the Tournament. I have spent much of last night and this morning looking at historical data related to the RPI and ACC Bubble Teams. Based on this, (and of course it being something we are emotionally invested in I want to be cautious), Miami should make the NCAAs with a win over BC regardless of what happens against Florida State and in the ACC Tournament. However if the Canes lose to BC, they probably need to beat FSU AND win a game in the ACC Tournament to ensure a bid without worrying about what other bubble teams do in their league tournaments.

Let's look back at some recent ACC "bubble" teams

SOS indicated the national ranking for strength of schedule.

1996-97 Virginia

18-12 overall 7-9 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI: 25 SOS: 4

Verdict: received at large NCAA bid
1997-98 Florida State

17-13 overall 6-10 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI: 39 SOS: 11

Verdict: Last team in NCAA field
1999-2000
Virginia

19-11 overall 9-7 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI: 76 SOS 109
North Carolina

18-13 8-8 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 41 SOS 13

Virginia swept North Carolina including a 16 point win at Chapel Hill

Verdict: North Carolina gets a #8 seed in the NCAAs, Virginia misses the field outright.

2001-2002 Virginia

17-11 7-9 ACC; Lost first round of ACC Tournament

RPI 50 SOS 48

Verdict: Misses the field

2004-05

Maryland

16-12 7-9 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 57 SOS 23

Miami

16-12 7-9 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 59 SOS 26
North Carolina State

19-13 7-9 ACC; Lost in ACC tournament final to Duke after winning first two tourney games

RPI 63 SOS 42

Miami was undefeated against Maryland and NC State; Maryland swept NC State

Miami and Maryland were 4-6 in last 10 games, NC State was 8-2.

Verdict: NC State gets at large bid and makes Sweet 16; Maryland and Miami miss field

2005-2006 Florida State

19-9 9-7 ACC lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 63 SOS 94

Verdict: FSU misses the tournament despite beating #1 Duke in last week of the season and posting its only winning ACC record the last 15 years.


Obviously no pattern exists in the selection committees preferences for teams from year to year. However, the RPI and last ten games are the most binding factors which puts Miami in excellent shape and also gives a team like Florida State, red hot of late an opportunity to play their way into the field. These numbers even though ACC based are ominous for the two time defending national champion Florida Gators, currently sitting 63rd in the RPI with a strength of schedule of 112th. Florida may have no choice but to beat either Tennessee or Kentucky this week to make the field despite the goodwill they have earned from two consecutive titles. (Florida's resume currently is almost identical to FSU's two years ago assuming Florida beats Tennessee this week and losses to Kentucky. However the difference between Florida now and FSU then is simple: reputation and we know that weighs on the selection committee.)

Canes Still #1 in RPI Rankings

I must say I am truly amazed that with all of the current good non conference matchups that any team, especially Miami has managed a three week solid run atop the RPI rankings.

The current Top 5:

1- Miami
2- Texas A&M
3- Vanderbilt
4- Texas
5- Memphis

Now the other four teams in the Top 5 are all of a top 10 national caliber. Memphis, and the two Texas schools are recognized as such, while Vanderbilt is finally getting its just due in the past week or so. The fact that Miami has played no RPI Top 20 opposition, but yet has only one team on its schedule thus far ranked below 150th in the RPI speaks to the excellent scheduling the Canes have done to this point. But don't expect the Canes to stay ranked this high. With minnows such as Stetson and North Florida looming, a tumble is coming.

Canes Still #1 in RPI Rankings

Miami's run as the #1 team in the RPI Rankings is now at twelve days. Miami strength of schedule is currently #4 in the nation, and Miami has only played one opponent thus far outside the RPI Top 100. However, don't expect Miami's run to last beyond Saturday. Even if the Hurricanes win, playing Florida International ranked #289 in the RPI is sure to send their ranking plummeting.


Current RPI Top 20 From Jerry Palm's College RPI. com

RPI Data					SOS		Polls
Rank	School	W-L	RPI	W	L	Pct	OWP	OOWP	Rank	Rating	AP	USA
1	Miami-Florida	6-0	0.7728	4.8	0.0	1.0000	0.7329	0.6253	4	0.6971
2	St. Mary's	5-0	0.7360	3.0	0.0	1.0000	0.6667	0.6107	10	0.6480
3	Texas	7-0	0.7112	5.8	0.0	1.0000	0.6274	0.5900	18	0.6149	4	5
4	Providence	5-2	0.7104	4.6	1.6	0.7419	0.7698	0.5598	3	0.6998
5	Sam Houston	3-0	0.6967	2.6	0.0	1.0000	0.5937	0.5994	28	0.5956
6	Vanderbilt	8-0	0.6948	6.4	0.0	1.0000	0.6205	0.5382	31	0.5931	23	25
7	Xavier	7-1	0.6859	5.0	0.6	0.8929	0.6487	0.5536	17	0.6170	21	20
8	Memphis	7-0	0.6807	5.4	0.0	1.0000	0.5988	0.5253	59	0.5743	2	2
9	Duke	8-0	0.6741	6.4	0.0	1.0000	0.5552	0.5859	74	0.5654	6	7
10	UCLA	6-1	0.6662	4.4	1.4	0.7586	0.6735	0.5593	14	0.6354	7	8
11	Oregon	6-1	0.6632	5.2	0.6	0.8966	0.5907	0.5748	40	0.5854	19	18
12	Texas A&M	6-1	0.6631	4.4	0.6	0.8800	0.6190	0.5344	34	0.5908	16	14
13	North Texas	3-2	0.6571	2.6	1.2	0.6842	0.6883	0.5674	11	0.6480
14	Dayton	6-1	0.6541	5.2	0.6	0.8966	0.5656	0.5886	62	0.5733
15	North Carolina	8-0	0.6522	8.4	0.0	1.0000	0.5354	0.5378	109	0.5362	1	1
16	Washington St	8-0	0.6510	7.2	0.0	1.0000	0.5246	0.5550	112	0.5347	8	6
17	Drake	4-1	0.6489	3.2	0.6	0.8421	0.5714	0.6107	46	0.5845
18	Seton Hall	7-1	0.6485	5.8	0.6	0.9063	0.5804	0.5272	76	0.5626
19	Michigan St	7-1	0.6473	5.4	1.0	0.8438	0.5676	0.6102	48	0.5818	9	10
20	Louisville	5-1	0.6470	4.2	1.0	0.8077	0.5923	0.5956	30	0.5934	14	11

RPI Ratings: Miami #1

Well I must say I didn't expect this one. For the first time in the young College Basketball season I logged into Jerry Palm's outstanding College RPI site. Jerry is a computer scientist and crazy sports fan who is the foremost expert on both the BCS and RPI in the nation. I've been using his sites since 1998 for Basketball and 2001 for Football.

Anyhow, I logged in today to see if Miami was in the top 20 or so, and found us ranked #1. Here is the top 10.

1- Miami
2- Texas
3- New Orleans
4- Ohio
5- George Mason
6- Duke
7- UCLA
8- Seton Hall
9- Texas A&M
10- Villanova