The ACC Bubble: A Historical Look

Yesterday leaving the Bank United Center I heard lots of speculation about how many wins the Hurricanes need in ACC play to make the Tournament. I have spent much of last night and this morning looking at historical data related to the RPI and ACC Bubble Teams. Based on this, (and of course it being something we are emotionally invested in I want to be cautious), Miami should make the NCAAs with a win over BC regardless of what happens against Florida State and in the ACC Tournament. However if the Canes lose to BC, they probably need to beat FSU AND win a game in the ACC Tournament to ensure a bid without worrying about what other bubble teams do in their league tournaments.

Let's look back at some recent ACC "bubble" teams

SOS indicated the national ranking for strength of schedule.

1996-97 Virginia

18-12 overall 7-9 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI: 25 SOS: 4

Verdict: received at large NCAA bid
1997-98 Florida State

17-13 overall 6-10 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI: 39 SOS: 11

Verdict: Last team in NCAA field
1999-2000
Virginia

19-11 overall 9-7 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI: 76 SOS 109
North Carolina

18-13 8-8 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 41 SOS 13

Virginia swept North Carolina including a 16 point win at Chapel Hill

Verdict: North Carolina gets a #8 seed in the NCAAs, Virginia misses the field outright.

2001-2002 Virginia

17-11 7-9 ACC; Lost first round of ACC Tournament

RPI 50 SOS 48

Verdict: Misses the field

2004-05

Maryland

16-12 7-9 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 57 SOS 23

Miami

16-12 7-9 ACC; Lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 59 SOS 26
North Carolina State

19-13 7-9 ACC; Lost in ACC tournament final to Duke after winning first two tourney games

RPI 63 SOS 42

Miami was undefeated against Maryland and NC State; Maryland swept NC State

Miami and Maryland were 4-6 in last 10 games, NC State was 8-2.

Verdict: NC State gets at large bid and makes Sweet 16; Maryland and Miami miss field

2005-2006 Florida State

19-9 9-7 ACC lost first ACC tournament game

RPI 63 SOS 94

Verdict: FSU misses the tournament despite beating #1 Duke in last week of the season and posting its only winning ACC record the last 15 years.


Obviously no pattern exists in the selection committees preferences for teams from year to year. However, the RPI and last ten games are the most binding factors which puts Miami in excellent shape and also gives a team like Florida State, red hot of late an opportunity to play their way into the field. These numbers even though ACC based are ominous for the two time defending national champion Florida Gators, currently sitting 63rd in the RPI with a strength of schedule of 112th. Florida may have no choice but to beat either Tennessee or Kentucky this week to make the field despite the goodwill they have earned from two consecutive titles. (Florida's resume currently is almost identical to FSU's two years ago assuming Florida beats Tennessee this week and losses to Kentucky. However the difference between Florida now and FSU then is simple: reputation and we know that weighs on the selection committee.)