Winthop Preview

Do not allow Winthrop's 6-5 record to fool you. This is probably the best team Miami has faced since beating two very good teams (Providence and VCU) in Puerto Rico last month. The Eagles made the NCAAs last season and beat Notre Dame in the first round. The previous season they had taken Tennessee to the brink in a dramatic game. This team has more experience and seasoned players than Miami, and even this season despite the five losses they have played some superb teams like Ole Miss close on the road.

Winthrop has an excellent guard oriented offensive game but is weak inside as Taj McCullough who has been a big star the last few years is more perimeter oriented than your average big man. McCullough is very good from the wing, and of course Winthrop still has Chris Gaynor and Michael Jenkins as big scoring guards. All three stars for the Eagles are Seniors and all three have never ended a season outside the NCAA Tournament.

Miami on the other hand is just learning to win. This game will be a perfect test: NCAA Tournament type atmosphere: a 1/3 full arena with most fans rooting for the underdog (Winthrop) and more interested in the 2nd game. How the Hurricanes handle the adversity and Winthrop will tell is a lot about the rest of the season.

Personally I think Winthrop needs this game and will get it. They've been in these situations before and thrived whereas the current group of Miami players have almost always flopped as neutral site favorite in a must win game. (they however have not flopped as an underdog as we've seen in the last two ACC Tournaments) We will learn a lot about Miami tomorrow.

Virginia Tech Preview

It's Basketball Season! Well at least that's what Canes fans should be saying with Frank Haith's team lighting up the scoreboard down in Puerto Rico. Anyhow today the Canes play the enemy AKA Virginia Tech.

Frank Beamer has stated that he will alternate Tyrod Taylor and Matt Glennon at QB. Personally I would rather face the immobile Glennon who the Canes ate up last season down in the OB. The Hokies had only a 132 total yards in that game but beat the Canes thanks to three bad Kyle Wright interceptions and some assistance from Jack Childress' officiating crew. I'm not sure if Childress and his friends will be in Blacksburg today but the Canes D-line needs to pressure either Virginia Tech QB.

While Va Tech's receivers are solid they aren't game breakers. I personally rate Virginia much more highly than VT, since the Cavs can grind out games on the ground and wear teams down and have a dominating pass rush. The Canes offensively will be without Graig Cooper and Shawnbrey McNeal but as down as I have been on the Canes all year (I picked them recall to finish below .500) something tells me a win is coming today. Look for Kyle Wright to have time to go downfield to Darnell Jenkins and for Miami to work on getting its multitude of TE's move involved.

Virginia Tech is the program most associated with November collapses against inferior opponents when ranked too high in the Top 25. It happens again today with a shocking Canes win.

MIAMI 16 VIRGINIA TECH 13

NC State Preview

When Tom O'Brien left Boston College to take the NC State job last year I thought he was crazy. Midway through this season he looked if possible even dumbed as BC was ranked second in the nation and NC State was limping through a horrible campaign. But now BC looks ripe for the picking (I am very confident Florida State will defeat them this Saturday) and NC State is beginning to play the way O'Brien envisioned when he took the job. Consecutive quality wins over East Carolina (a traditional rival NC State refused to play for years) and Virginia have NC State sniffing bowl eligibility after starting the season 1-5. It gets easier for the Wolfpack this week as they travel to face the Kyle Wright less Hurricanes whose defensive performances over the last month have made the local pro football team look like world beaters.

Daniel Evans is one of the better QBs Miami will face in ACC play. He's has all the tools and has looked outstanding the past few weeks. His weapons are all home grown Floridians or so it seems, a legacy to the fine recruiting Chuck Amato did in the Sunshine State. John Dunlap, a local kid from Hollywood is someone the Hurricanes sure could have used the past few seasons. Donald Bowens is a good one as well, and Amato got him even though Urban Meyer wanted him badly.

Andre Brown introduced himself to the nation two years ago when he ran all over FSU in Tallahassee. This year he is joined in the backfield by Jamelle Eugene to form a dynamic one two punch.

NC State's pass defense is very good, but their run defense is horrible. Nonetheless, after a rocky start Tom O'Brien's team had adjusted to his style of coaching and should settle down with one of the easiest road trips any school in the ACC has: Miami the week after a bye during the day. If NC State doesn't win this, O'Brien will look like an even bigger fool for taking the Wolfpack job. Keep in mind O'Brien has never beaten Miami, going 0-9 vs the Canes at BC, but this is a different time and this isn't your father's Miami Hurricanes.

Kirby Freeman played heroically against Florida State leading an epic drive to seize the lead inside of two minutes. Freeman however, as we have seen time and time again is limited playing the QB position. He comes in as the only healthy QB Miami has, and he is sore from the hit inflicted upon him by Geno Hayes on the winning TD. Chances are he'll have to make plays in this game, and as we all know he probably won't. Unless Kyle Wright plays, I see very little chance for Miami, but the home crowd and NC State's own limitations should keep the scoreline artificially close.

PREDICTION: NC STATE 20 MIAMI 13

FSU Prediction

Despite the bluster of most in the media, Miami and Florida State are not in similar positions. The Seminoles have Top 10 talent, an exciting QB, play making WRs a great defense, and a special teams unit that reminds me of the old Miami. The Hurricanes have none of that. This game regardless of what anyone tries to sell you should be the biggest mismatch between the teams in FSU's favor since the late 1990s.

How can Miami stay in the game? Go to church tonight and ask for forgiveness for all the sins of the past few seasons. Seriously, the Canes need to be able to run the football down FSU's throat. Miami has the backs to do this. The grinder Javarris James, the shifty Graig Cooper and the lightning fast Shawnberry McNeal. While the overall talent level at Miami is poor, the stable of Tailbacks at UM is something all Canes fans should be excited about. Ironically in the late 1990s when Miami was hugely outclassed by FSU, the one thing the Canes had going for it was a group of Tailbacks second to none anywhere in major college football.

Miami's offensive line however is so poor going up against an outstanding front seven for FSU, I doubt Miami will be able to execute this game plan. Florida State is a good team: their losses contrary to the fashion in the media aren't horrible: two prime time losses against better ACC teams. This Florida State team has beaten Colorado and Alabama, and should make easy work of Miami.

Here are some reasons why:

• Miami's front seven has a bad habit over pursuing plays. With a running QB like Xavier Lee that is fatal.
• FSU's defense has become much better at ball hawking and creating scoring chances off of turnovers. Miami on the other hand is turnover prone.
• Miami's WR's are pretty poor, and FSU's secondary is among the best anywhere in America.
• Miami's Secondary is among the worst in the ACC and is constantly being overhauled by the Coaching Staff. Do you really think Glen Sharpe can cover Greg Carr?
• Miami's kicking game is a joke. Darren Daly (Who is from my High School, by the way) is set to handle the place kicking duties this week from what I understand. Do you think constantly shifting the kicker, punter and kickoff specialist is doing any good. It is amazing that Larry Coker allowed this team to rely on walk ons to kick after recruiting Jon Peattie five years ago.
  
• Intangibles: FSU is still playing hard, Miami has quit on the season and on their coach. I'd expect to see several underclassmen for Miami playing in their last FSU-Miami game as I fully expect Coach Shannon to kick several of these malcontents off the team this spring, and speaking of kickers he has already stated he wants to sign several in this class.
  

PREDICTION: Florida State 26 Miami 3

From the Nole Perspective: Rich Halten, Publisher of Chant Rant

Rich Halten the publisher of Chant Rant the web's best source for analysis of Florida State Football stops by all week long to discuss the Sunshine State rivalry from the Seminole perspective. Rich is an FSU grad, booster and season ticket holder for 30 years. In the past, have covered FSU for theuniversity newspaper as well as other print and broadcast media. He is uniquely qualified to give us a historical perspective on the Florida State program and on the Miami rivalry. I am very pleased and honored that he has agreed to help us at Canes Rising in the build up for Saturday's matchup.

Here is the first in series of questions Canes Rising asked Rich about the matchup.

Canes Rising: It seems that while much was made of Jimbo Fisher's hiring, Jeff Bowden may have actually done a better job with his personnel by throwing more screens against blitzes and calling more downfield throws than Fisher. Is it possible Fisher is just easing in the new play book since J. Bowden was the offensive coordinator for so long, or is Fisher's offense more vanilla than we had originally thought?

Chant Rant: A little of both. That is, "easing into the playbook" and "offense being more vanilla".The true picture isn't clear, but here are some theories/insights/opinions:

1. Though most FSU fans are disappointed and expected better, Jimbo is still head 'n shouldersabove Jeff B. Jeff did have a couple of good games (in particular the Emerald Bowl win againstUCLA) but his play-calling was mostly predictable. And though he didn't coach QBs, Jimbo has atrack record of developing very good ones. To that point, he had to start over with QB 101, tryingto UNdo the poor teaching of the previous QB coach.

2. Yes, Fisher is easing the team into the playbook. And the slow learning curve is compounded bya 180 degree change of philosophy on the offensive line (lean 'n mean versus Shamu and slow).Also, Jimbo is now re-tooling for a different QB than the one who started the season.

3. No, Fisher is not a fun 'n gun, west coast, or gimmicky offensive coordinator. We were told when he was hired -- and are seeing first hand -- that he wants a balanced attack. Unfortunately,due to the very young OL that's struggling to maintain 5% bodyfat, learn new techniques and masterthe playbook, FSU is nowhere close to balanced yet.

Georgia Tech Preview

We learned once again on Thursday Night how far the superpower programs that changed College Football from the state of Florida have fallen. After dominating the first half and showing superior speed, skill and overall talent, Florida State collapsed at Groves Stadium and lost for the second straight year to Wake Forest, yes Wake Forest. Now from perspective my Florida State is years ahead of Miami on the road to College Football recovery (except in the coaching department where FSU continues to be among the worst in the nation) so that game should put in perspective to any non believers out there who still think Miami has the talent or the desire to compete for an ACC title that Miami is done competiting for titles for sometime.

The Hurricanes have continued bleed even as Randy Shannon has valiantly tried to teach this bunch of players what it means to play at the "U." But sadly Shannon's efforts to instill some pride and discipline on the team have to this point been a flat failure.

Into this mess comes Georgia Tech in desperate need of stopping the bleeding themselves, the losers of three of their first four league games. The last few years if you need a victory in the league to restore confidence in embattled coaches, no better remedy exists than seeing the Hurricanes on the other sideline. As talent deficient as Duke is at least you can expect them to show up and play hard every Saturday. From Miami and to a lesser extent Florida State you don't know what to expect.

However, I know what to expect in this particular game because Georgia Tech matches up so well against Miami. John Tenuta is one of the best minds in Football and each of the last three matchups he's taken advantage of poor offensive line play by Miami to help his GT defense record 20 sacks versus UM, all 20 recorded versus Kyle Wright. In 2004, Brock Berlin threw three first half TDs against Tech but in the second half when Wright got some playing time we got a preview of how ineffective Wright is against the blitz and Eric Winston got hurt badly to boot. In both 2005 and 2006 Wright looked like a High School QB facing Tenuta's intricate blitz and coverage schemes.

Georgia Tech is 5th in the nation in turnover margin and even though their offense has been playing catch up a lot lately (and thus has inflated stats) they won't need a whole lot of offense to beat a turnover prone Miami team. If Miami cannot establish a power running game in the first few series of the games, this one could and should get ugly. I predict it will, and Chan Gailey gets the critics off his back for one week at least.

GEORGIA TECH 31 MIAMI 7

Miami-North Carolina Preview

The last time the Hurricanes ventured north to Chapel Hill the #2 (BCS) Canes were shocked by North Carolina 31-28. That result probably saved coach John Bunting's job for an extra two years as Carolina has consistently underperformed since the departure of Mack Brown to Texas after the 1998 season. That game in 2004 sent the Hurricane program into a tailspin that they have yet to recover from, despite some mirages such as the 2005 crushing of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and the win earlier this season against Texas A&M.

Miami enters the game at 4-1 (1-0 in the ACC) while the Tar Heels are 1-4 (0-2 in the ACC). However, it is hard to believe Miami is favored to win this game. Most discussed this week by the media has been the Butch Davis factor, with the former Miami assistant and Head Coach now leading Carolina. But more importantly is Miami's 1-5 road record the past two seasons after going 23-3 on the road the previous five seasons. (one of those three losses was the aforementioned game against North Carolina.) Miami has lost its edge away from home and I quite frankly do not see the young Canes beating any Division IA opposition away from the Orange Bowl this season.

So obviously I like North Carolina to win the game. But their is more to it than Miami's poor road form. North Carolina has the #1 pass defense in the league, and also held Virginia's passing game in check despite being beat at home by the Cavs. Despite the recent bluster that Miami's passing game is coming around the Canes still rank 98th in the nation in pass offense. I love Marin Austin and the Carolina front seven. They are very under rated and will step up big in what is sure to be an emotional matchup tomorrow.

Miami's pass defense looked terrible against Duke and Oklahoma the only two offenses Miami has faced with good passing Quarterback play. Butch Davis loves his redshirt Freshman QB T.J. Yates and expect him to shred Miami's under performing and inexperienced secondary. It is notable to point out that Miami has lost just one game since 1979 to a team that has lost less than six games in a season (The loss to five win UVA last season.) Thus, if Miami does lose this game as I expect, North Carolina will likely be record wise the worst team to defeat Miami since I-AA Florida A&M in 1979. (Interestingly Miami beat #1 Penn State on the road three weeks after losing to FAMU that season).

PREDICTION: NORTH CAROLINA 17 MIAMI 13

Canes-Aggies Preview

Let me be open and honest about something before I get into this preview......I like Denis Franchione a great deal and love the type of football coach he is. Texas A&M has rediscovered the power running game they lost during the later stages of the R.C. Slocum era in College Station and now is as strong a team as the Big XII boasts.

The running game A&M will bring to the Orange Bowl is impressive to say the least. Stephen McGee is among the most complete quarterbacks in the nation. He showed his quality two seasons ago when as a Freshman he filled admirably for the injured Reggie McNeal and A&M didn't miss a beat. McGee ran for over 500 yards last season and threw for over 2,000 becoming one of the few players in the history of the BCS Subdivision (what from here on out we will refer to as Division 1 A ) to achieve this amazing feat.

Mike Goodson, and Jorvorskie Lane form a one two punch at tailback that Miami would dream of having. The Aggies can run right at teams, especially those with weak defensive lines which Miami has proved to have thus far in 2007.

Kerry Franks is the leading WR for the Aggies but Franchione as was the case at TCU and Alabama loves to get his Tight End involved in the passing game. Martel Bennent is a good TE and will be a handful for the Miami linebackers and Safeties, still smarting from the annihilation in Norman to cope with.

Defensively, A&M's front seven are outstanding. Miami will be fortunate to have as much success running the football against the Aggies as they did against Oklahoma. Can the Aggies completely shut down Graig Cooper and Javarris James. I'd count on it.

Where Texas A&M is extremely vulnerable is in the pass defense. I watched A&M's game with Fresno State a few days later on tape and was shocked at how poor their pass coverage was in almost every situation. This gives Kyle Wright an opportunity to have a big game if he can get some game breaking performances out of his Wide Receivers. The Aggies leave their corners on an island often and simply put their cover corners can not handle that sort of responsibility. The A&M game plan will likely to blitz Kyle Wright knowing the trouble Wright has had through the years handling the blitz. Now if A&M does this, short screen passes to Graig Cooper or Shawnberry McNeal maybe the best recipie for success.

I don't think Miami has the strength up front on Defense to stop Texas A&M's running game. That's what this game will come down to, and even if Kyle Wright gives a nice effort Miami likely won't have enough to make those of us heading to the Orange Bowl for possibly the last time in prime time go home happy.

PREDICTION: TEXAS A&M 27 MIAMI 20