Closing In On the Dance

Don't let the scoreline fool you. Miami did what it needed to today against Virginia inspite of a red hot Sean Singletary to continue marching towards an NCAA bid this year. The Hurricanes never trailed after taking the lead with about 15:00 to go in the game and despite the late difficulties which took a 15 point lead down to 1, the Canes made the plays they needed to.

Lance Hurdle's corner three as the shot clock expired on Miami's last full possession are the types of plays good teams make. With the lead down to one and UVA on a 9-0 run, the Canes moved the ball around the perimeter well and found Hurdle in the corner. Jack McClinton had a great game hitting seven straight shots at one point in the second half, but his two late FT misses gave J.J. Reddick a greater cushion atop the ACC all time percentage lead for FT's and more importantly gave the Cavs some life. When an opponent of Miami sees McClinton miss FTs, the automatically think it is their day.

Miami's tournament resume also got an unexpected boost with Mississippi State's win at Florida this afternoon. The Bulldogs are now a game and a half up in the SEC West. In addition the Hurricanes have beaten four other teams that currently lead their leagues: Alabama State, Morgan State, VCU and Duke.

Contrary to some of the opinions I heard leaving the Bank United Center today no magic number exists for Miami to get a bid. For example in 2004 Maryland was considered in deep trouble entering the ACC Tournament at 7-9 in the league. But they won the Tournament and got a #4 seed in the NCAAs. In 2005, NC State finished tied with the Canes for 6th in the league at 7-9, but got an at-large bid partly due to playing well down the stretch after starting 2-7 in the league. In 2006, Florida State famously missed the big dance despite finishing 9-7 in the league. In 2000, Virginia missed the tournament despite a 9-7 league record and a 20 plus point win at 8-8 North Carolina who of course made the NCAAs. Then take 1998 when Florida State finished 6-10 in the league and lost in the ACC play in game yet made the NCAAs, in one of the great shocks in Selection Sunday history. In 1997, Virginia had no quality wins in the league but at 7-9 got an at large bid because the league's RPI was so high.

Tomorrow I will try and delve further into the history of the RPI as it applies to ACC bubble teams. Right now, I am unclear as to where the bubble really is, as RPI expert Jerry Palm had Miami safely in his field this morning as an 8 seed, but Joe Lunardi had Miami as one of the last four in and an 11 seed yesterday. The bottom line is if the Canes keep winning all of this doesn't matter.