Looking Ahead: NCAA Prospects

Miami's train wreck of a first half which saw the Hurricanes trail @ Clemson 29-8 after 12 minutes became yet another road near miss as the Canes came all the way back to take a late lead before going cold in the last four minutes and being overcome by the Tigers.

Miami was perfectly terrible in the first stanza. Unable to handle the press, unable to guard the perimeter. When this happens, Miami's regular advantage down low in the paint and on the boards is meaningless. Last night the Canes out rebounded the Tigers by a wide margin, but it made no difference. Eddie Rios insertion into the lineup gave the Canes some life, but also took Lance Hurdle, the only Hurricane capable of making regularly good decisions against pressure out of the game. Rios may be a better ball handler than Hurdle, and when he's on like yesterday a better shooter, but he is slower, more undisciplined and takes wild shots, and lacks the ability to go to the basket with any authority. On a team running a half court offense he is little more than a spark plug off the bench and quite frankly unless he makes significant improvement next season, he should, inspite of his high recruiting ranking transfer to a smaller school, or a school that doesn't require a point guard to attack the basket or distribute.

James Dews played the worst defense he has all season yesterday and Cliff Hammonds shut Jack McClinton down for the vast majority of the game. When the Hurricanes stormed back (on a 28-8 run) thanks to great hustle play by Jimmy Graham, Ray Hicks and Dwayne Collins, McClinton as has so often been the case this season showed no trust in his team mates. He kept forcing bad shots even when the game was going Miami's way and Clemson appeared shell shocked and ready to quit. Jack is a great shooter, but he isn't the only one who can hit shots on this team and his selfish, panicky play has been a detriment almost as often as it has been a positive this season.

So where does this leave us? The answer is in trouble. The Hurricanes looked totally unprepared last night and may have been better off simply trying to build for the coming home stand after falling behind rather than to expend so much effort to come all the way back and now return to Coral Gables demoralized. Sure, you never play to lose, but I'm thinking the psychological roller coaster of last night is probably a very bad thing for this fragile team.

Florida State has played its way into the NCAA Tournament discussion as has Wake Forest. Maryland could effectively be done after tonight against Wake. Virginia Tech has done more than Miami to earn a bid, winning regularly on the road and showing an ability to play under pressure. Sure Miami's RPI is much much higher than the other teams mentioned but that could easily change with a loss this week.

Miami must beat both Virginia and Boston College at home this week. Virginia for one will be tough: they are finally playing at the level they did early in the year and are for the first time all season, healthy. This is a team that went to Tuscon and beat Arizona. Given Miami's perimeter defense woes, Sean Singletary will have a huge night. But Miami should be strong enough to go inside on the Cavs early and often like against Duke, which means this game will be very similar to the Duke game where Miami's advantage in the paint was obvious and the difference.

Boston College is a team Miami never beats. Ty Rice has had some career like outings against the Canes and I have inkling that will change. For the first time since 2000 BC enters this stretch with nothing to play. I don't like that, and don't like our chances.

Then the Canes travel to Tallahassee to play red hot Florida State. The Seminoles were the team in the ACC who most dominated Miami in ACC play this year and that game was in Coral Gables. I would be quite frankly shocked if Miami wins this game. If Miami couldn't win at Clemson, a team with no late season pedigree that had almost quit on the game, why should we believe Miami can beat a team with four guards who can shoot lights out like the Noles?

The summary is the Canes inspite of what may be written around cyberspace enter this weekend in very serious jeopardy of not even being on the bubble come the start of the ACC Tournament. I really don't like Miami's chances to win any of the remaining games based on what I watched last night. From a pure match up standpoint, BC should still be a win, but the Eagles own the Canes and at this point it is more psychological than anything. I hope I am wrong, but I am not planning an NCAA Tourney trip, and I certainly believe that if my fears are realized a discussion of the coaching situation will be in order at the appropriate time.