Daily RPI Update: Bracket Projections

With no meaningful games yesterday, Miami's profile and that of it's most viable opposition remains the same.

Some bracket projections have the Canes squarely on the bubble. Rivals.com has Miami in the field as an 11 seed, but having rarely covered anything well other than recruiting I'd consider that projection unworthy of discussion.

RPI expert Jerry Palm has Miami as his second team out of the field while Virginia Tech is the last team in the field. Wisconsin and Penn State also are in his last four teams in, meaning we will start to track the Badgers as well, a team who last missed the NCAAs in 1997 but whom I had written off this season. He has Maryland as a #10 seed.

This projection looks solid other than the Maryland pick. The Terps last season beat North Carolina on the road and finished 8-8 in the ACC but didn't warrant much bubble consideration. This year the Terps still have a lack of road wins, and while they have a shot make an impression if they beat Wake at home, the lack of any sort of quality road performances has to be factored against the Terps. I believe Miami and Virginia Tech both have stronger resumes than Maryland at this point.

I have no quarrel with VT being in the field. If the Hokies win in Tallahassee next week they should lock down a bid.

Joe Lunardi has Miami completely off his board after keeping Miami in his field following five losses in six games earlier in the month. He also has Florida and Michigan as his last teams in the field. The Gators fate is in their own hands: if they win two of their last three games they should get in, although Florida like Maryland has an issue of a lack of road wins.

According to Bracket Matrix which compiles the 50 or so web "bracketologists" Miami is the last team in the NCAA field in the cumulative ranking. The first team out based on this ranking, is surprise, Virginia Tech.

We knew Miami's overtime loss to the Hokies was costly at the time. It became more costly as it snowballed into a week of lackluster play and indifference for the Canes who then lost in OT two days later in Raleigh and then didn't show up in College Park against Maryland. (Yet the Canes still almost won that game which speaks loudly as to how poor a team the Terps really are much of the time).

One caveat. In the past the selection committee has made provisions for teams without star players for a game or two. In 1998, Miami's profile didn't warrant an at-large bid, but with Johnny Hemsley suspended for a four game stretch when the Canes went 1-3, the committee appeared to qualify those losses and let UM into the dance as a #11 seed.

Let me be frank: I believe Virginia Tech is getting in the tournament, so Miami needs Maryland to start losing, and needs to keep winning. A late slide from Penn State, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin would help also.

Miami also has the noise advantage. It seems until the Canes lose next Andy Katz, Jay Bilas and the rest of ESPN's ACC centric commentators are going to keep talking up the Canes as some sort of potential #12 seed that could make the Sweet 16. All the talk from ESPN about Villanova seemed to work last year as the Wildcats perhaps undeservedly got the last at-large bid and then won two NCAA games. It appears Miami is being cast in the same mold this season, and has a similar profile of close shave losses against top teams.

But as I have said before I don't believe playing teams close should be a resume builder to get into the tournament. But every selection committee is different and perhaps this one believes it is.

CORRECTION: I misread Bracketology by Joe Lunardi. He has Miami in the field as a #12 seed.