The Road to the NCAAs for Hurricane Basketball

Despite having an awful run of form the last month, Miami Basketball does still have an outside shot at reaching the elusive goal of making the NCAA Tournament. Miami has missed five consecutive NCAA Tournaments.

Thanks to giving away games at Wake Forest and NC State last month, the Hurricanes have very little margin for error coming into the home stretch of the ACC season. The RPI rankings favor Miami with a current ranking of #40, which would put the Canes on the bubble if not for the awful conference performance.

Here is the remaining Miami Regular Season schedule:

Sunday @ Georgia Tech

Chances of winning: 40%

The Hurricanes beat Tech in Coral Gables to start the ACC campaign last month and are coming off a road win. Nonetheless, the Jackets have to be considered the favorite in this game. Anthony Morrow and Lewis Clinch have played much better of later and even Matt Causey has made some critical shots. Georgia Tech is deep and very good at home having had near misses against Kansas, North Carolina and UConn. Miami will need a monster effort to win this game.

2/20 Duke

Chances of winning: 15%

The Hurricanes trip to Durham earlier in the season exposed the Canes for being weak defensively on perimeter and easily rattled inside. Unlike other conference also-rans Miami has done nothing since joining the league to make belief in an upset against Duke possible. While other traditional bottom feeders like Florida State and Clemson seem to always be able to steal a game against the ACC's big two, Miami can't even be competitive against these teams, let alone steal a game.

2/23 Maryland

Chances of winning: 50%

Maryland is a much better team than Miami, but they have simply had a curse against them when facing the Canes. The Terps have shown some outstanding inside strength since the league campaign began and even more critical has been the emergence Grevis Vasquez as a legitimate threat from the point guard spot.

2/27 @ Clemson

Chances of winning: 35%

Clemson has still not convinced me that they are worthy of an NCAA birth. Cliff Hammonds must do a better job defensively against Jack McClinton in Clemson if the Tigers are to avoid another loss to Miami. Clemson is 1-6 vs Miami since the Canes joined the ACC, the lone winning coming in double OT last season.

3/1 UVA

Chances of winning: 75%

Despite having Sean Singletary, the Cavs have no inside game and really no hope. They seem hopelessly out matched every night in the ACC. Pete Gillen's last few, error plagued recruiting classes will leave the building after this season.

3/5 Boston College

Chances of winning: 50%

I am stunned by the Eagles poor play of late. Tyrese Rice is still one of the best shooters in the league but the lack of ball handling and on again off again inside play has doomed Al Skinner's team to its worst season this millennium.

3/8 @ Florida State

Chances of winning: 50%

Miami's performance against FSU in Coral Gables last week was an embarrassment. However, since joining the league the Canes have played better in Tallahassee versus the Seminoles than in Coral Gables. Miami still has tremendous matchup advantages against the Seminoles and chances are this time around the Hurricanes will play strong inside and not rely on Jack McClinton to bail them out.

Summary: Miami's road to getting themselves back on the bubble is difficult, especially in the next ten days. Should Miami somehow get through the Maryland game at 5-7 in the ACC, the schedule sets itself up for a late run that could get Miami to 8-8 and give the Hurricanes an opportunity to do some damage in the ACC Tournament. Miami's play in the ACC Tournament the last two seasons has been outstanding, finally bowing out to much higher seeded teams after winning the first day in the last seconds. A similar Miami run, if the Canes can get to 8-8 in the league may be just enough to convince the committee that the Canes belong in the dance. But again the margin for error is minimal. A loss to Georgia Tech this Sunday could essentially end Miami's hopes.