NCAA Fate Could Be decided Tonight

I'm not one for over hyping games but it is entirely possible Miami will be NIT or Basketball Invitational (The new post season event) bound if they lose tonight in Starkville against Mississippi State. Here's my logic in making this obviously controversial statement. In the new ACC where unbalanced schedules are the rule of the day, Miami plays a much tougher league slate than other potential bubble teams, Clemson, NC State, Florida State and Maryland. I expect Duke, North Carolina, Boston College and Virginia to make the tournament with ease. Miami's schedule is simply the product of bad luck along with having Boston College as a permanent two meeting a year opponent. (The ACC's new scheduling is complicated but in short you play two teams deemed as rivals twice every season and rotate through the rest of the league playing some twice and then once the next year and vise versa. BTW, Miami's other permanent two time a year opponent is obviously Florida State.) Boston College has beaten Miami 12 straight times.

Miami has fewer games against the bottom of the league than the other potential bubble teams mentioned and more against the top of the league. What does this mean? Miami could despite its outstanding start very easily go 7-9 in the ACC. Miami has gone 7-9 in the ACC two out of its three ACC seasons and ended up in the NIT both times. Why would this year be any different? Potentially due to a higher RPI, but still I don't see a way Miami gets in the NCAAs at 7-9 in the league without sweeping the non league slate and of Miami's remaining non league games tonight's is by far the toughest.

Mississippi State has better talent than Miami. The Bulldogs typically have more talent than most SEC teams but aren't ever a particularly well coached team, and they never play the sort of strong man to man defense we've seen thus far this season from the Canes. Jamont Gordon is one of the best shooters in the nation and it will be up mostly to James Dews to limit his open shot opportunities tonight. Keep an eye on Ben Hansbrough, Tyler's younger and smaller brother whose game isn't quite as good as his famous sibling, but still it's possibly good enough to beat the Canes.

I don't think Miami wins tonight. My fear is that the Hurricanes embarrass themselves and don't recover for several weeks. Hopefully when and if the Canes fall behind they keep fighting and don't go down in a classic Miami fashion posting a twenty plus point loss.