Miami Basketball: November Wrapup

In the preseason I had anticipated Miami being better than most experts thought we would be. On that count, thus far I have been correct, but I also anticipated that the Canes would fly under the radar until at least mid to late January. On that count I was dead wrong and even worse naive. In the ACC, America’s signature Basketball league, it is impossible to “fly under the radar.” This league gets more TV coverage both from a broadcast and a print standpoint than any other league in the country. You cannot be an ACC school and perform the way the Hurricanes have in our first six games of the season and not get noticed, so as we enter December the Hurricanes are dangerously close to entering the Top 25 and thus placing a huge target on their back for the remainder of the non-league schedule. Considering that non conference games in this day and age are only slightly more significant than the NFL preseason, it is probably not a good thing that Miami’s expectations have now become inflated based on a strong run outside its league against inferior opponents. Virginia Commonwealth is a good team, and the Hurricanes handled them, never leading by less than 5 points after the 10 minute mark of the first half. However, the remainder of Miami’s schedule has been made up of teams that are less talented than the Canes. Beating Providence was nice, but losing to Providence would have been a very bad sign. The victory over Morgan State, a team that almost beat UConn was sloppy, but impressive in the sense that an undermanned Miami team dug deep to come from behind late.

The Hurricanes have struggled to find consistency in its offensive game this season, despite the perfect record. For example against both Marist and Alabama State the Hurricanes were able to rely on a dominant low post game both in transition and in a half court set. But against Providence and Morgan State, Miami was forced to rely on a perimeter oriented attack and some very stingy defense to pull out late victories. While inconsistency is an issue, the Hurricanes ability to beat teams multiple ways must be commended. Also the Canes ability to play shut down defense late in close games has been very pleasant to watch. A big key to this has been Freshman Eddie Rios whose erratic offensive play has been complimented by unparalleled man to man defensive work.

Rios emergence creates a dilemma for Coach Frank Haith. If he starts Rios he’s taking he good with the bad from a Freshman and cutting into Jack McClinton and ultimately James Dews minutes by pushing McClinton to the 2-guard. If he doesn’t start Rios you’re sacrificing defense and ball handling for shooting and scoring. James Dews emergence as a more complete player at the 2-guard spot has Haith juggling his lineup searching for ways to get everyone enough minutes and time in the game. However, the injuries to leading scorer Jack McClinton and to Adrian Thomas, whose early season form looked outstanding have been damaging. McClinton should be back soon, but Thomas tore his ACL for the second straight year and his career has to be considered in jeopardy. Thomas this far this season had shown explosiveness that he lacked prior to his first ACL tear. Lance Hurdle has been a nice addition to the team, but his decision making and inability to find his shot in half court sets don’t really mix well with the current Miami team. Nonetheless, Hurdle is an important utility player particularly with Thomas injured- he can play either the point or shooting guard positions and is very athletic. With Denis Clemente’s off season dismissal from the team (he subsequently transferred to Kansas State) Miami needs the athleticism Hurdle provides in the back court. Still the shooting of the guards is not consistent and every single backcourt player on the Hurricanes misses wide open looks, which is not a good sign going forward.

Miami is probably going to win or lose most of its games based on its inside/post play. While the guards are important, Miami lives and dies inside. The Hurricane big men are going to be counted on to out-rebound every opponent and to score as well. Anthony King has looked outstanding in his return from injury, showing his athleticism by continuing to block shots and surprisingly has increased his shooting range to almost 18 feet. Dwayne Collins is still raw and a work in progress but he has an NBA body and has shown as he did last year some real flashes of brilliance. I do have to admit that Collins hasn’t developed as quickly as I would hope as he still seems awkward with some of his post moves right around the basket. Jimmy Graham has recovered nicely from injury but as was the case his first two seasons, he is frustratingly inconsistent bringing a high work rate one night and disappearing the next. Ray Hicks never developed into the 10-12 ppg scorer I predicted at the beginning of last year due to a variety of injuries and suspensions, but he’s still strong for an undersized (6’7’’) big man and has shown once again an energy and athleticism inside this season that he lacked last year. Fabio Nass is still not fully recovered from injury, and even though Frank Haith likes his game, particularly his ability to set picks for the guards, I doubt he’ll be a factor this season.

Winning an in-season tournament is always a very good sign but the Hurricanes cannot assume that they can out muscle teams every night. The guard play has to become more consistent for the team to be truly successful and when the ACC season roles around, the Hurricanes cannot continue to miss so many open looks from the floor. Miami should be good this season, and so far so good. However, the quick start has led to people locally talking about finishing as high as 3^rd in the ACC, and making a deep NCAA run. From my vantage point that is completely unrealistic at this point, but a more modest and attainable goal is to get to 9-7 in the ACC and make the NCAA's as an eight or nine seed.