Florida State versus Florida Preview

Florida State enters this weeks matchup with BCS #4 Florida having just barely defeated Western Michigan, a mid major 28-20. The previous week the Noles were blanked by Wake Forest 30-0 in one of the low points of the Bowden era.

The Gators on the other hand are flying high. They defeated former Coach Steve Spurrier in the waning seconds two weeks thanks to some clutch play from Chris Leak and the awesome special teams play of Reggie Nelson and Jarvis Moss. The Gators still have an outside shot at playing for the BCS National Championship in Glendale, AZ, but have a more realistic shot of getting a split with a #1 ranking in the AP Poll if Ohio State losses to either Michigan or Southern Cal in the BCS game.

What to Watch For:

This will be Jeff Bowden's final regular season game as Florida State Offensive Coordinator. Bowden's pass happy offense has been mistake prone and inefficient all season long. Since Bowden is no longer trying to silence the critics, maybe he will call a better game, mixing in more power runs with Antoine Smith and screen passes to Lorenzo Booker.

Florida's front seven is the best in the nation. Given FSU's poor pass blocking schemes and the slow release of Drew Weatherford, the Noles must utilize quick screens, traps and draws to keep the Gator defense off balance.

On offense, Florida has struggled from inconsistency and untimely penalties. Yet the Gators have moved the ball and scored when they absolutely had to. Late game winning drives versus Tennessee and South Carolina have put Florida in position for its first SEC Title since 2000.

Florida State's defense has been depleted by injuries all year long. Florida must run Deshawn Wynn early and often to wear down an already dispirited unit. Power running is the key to this game for both teams. Florida however has the better opportunity to effectively take advantage of the need to pound the ball between the tackles.

Why Florida Will Win:

The Gators need this game more and they have the character and playmakers to make sure they don't slip up. Florida State's depleted defense has no answer for Andre Caldwell and Dallas Baker down the field or screens/inside handoffs to Percy Harvin or Caldwell. Florida State gives up chunks of yards in each game, regardless of the level of opposition. Chris Leak despite his career long inconsistency has always played solid games against Florida State. As a Freshman he lit them up in a heartbreaking and controversial loss in the Swamp. The last two seasons he has limited his mistakes and led the Gators to victory over the Noles.

Florida State's running game is non existent and against the best front seven in the nation, FSU will have to work hard to match their one yard output against a lousy Miami defense in the season opener. FSU's Quarterbacks are both mistake prone, and the WR tend to round their routes badly, or cut them off early. The Noles do not have the ability to take advantage of what is merely an average secondary for Florida.

Why Florida State Will Win:

Buster Davis. The playmaking linebacker is possibly the best in the nation at creating turnovers and converting them to points. He has single handily saved Florida State in three games this year with a big defensive play.

Chris Hetland has become one of the worst kickers in D1A Football and FSU has a very good kick blocking unit. A Hetland miss hit could easily turn into seven points for the Noles.

Never underestimate an underachieving team in a big rivalry game at home. As badly as the season has gone for the Noles and as much dissention as their is within the team and the Seminole nation they will all come together and give one heck of an effort Saturday.

The Bottom Line:

While Florida State will play harder and smarter than the last visit to Tallahassee by respectable opposition ( a 30-0 thrashing at the hands of Wake Forest), they don't have the line play on offense to control the awesome front seven of Florida. The Noles unwillingness to run the football and inability to pick up first downs in third and short situations have plagued the team all season long. Florida has just enough playmakers on the offensive side of the ball to blunt a spirited effort by the home standing, but heavily undermanned Noles.

PREDICTION: FLORIDA 21 FLORIDA STATE 13