Can the Canes Change Things in the Dance?

Lance Hurdle is the most important Cane


Tonight we assume that Sunday will bring Miami its first NCAA birth in six seasons since Perry Clark began his trashing of what had become a pretty respectable national program. However, as I write this events in Atlanta have cast doubt on everything: Mississippi State's improbable loss to Georgia, the last place team in the SEC who becomes the first team ever to win two conference tournament games in history on the same day (even more interesting that the games were in a different location than originally scheduled and were played in front of a sparse crowd of official observers in addition to the fact both teams Georgia beat are likely NCAA bound) coupled with Coppin State's shocking upset of Morgan State have sent the Hurricanes down to #34 in the RPI just eight days after having been ranked #21 and considered an NCAA lock. In 1998 Wake Forest was ranked #35 in the RPI and had the 2nd highest Strength of Schedule in the nation. They were however passed up for Florida State ranked #39 in the RPI and having lost 12 of its final 18 games. That Wake Forest team remains the only ACC team ever with a sub 40 RPI to miss the dance. So chances remain very very good Miami (probably about 90%) will make the dance but a small window of doubt has in fact opened as of this evening. This morning Miami was a 99.5% lock for the dance.

If Miami makes the highly unlikely fall to the NIT the issues remain the same so let's go through them.

Consistent Point Guard Play:

In my mind the Canes would be nowhere near the NCAAs if Lance Hurdle had not emerged as a go-to point guard late in the season. At the midway point in the ACC campaign I was quite frankly unsure if Miami was even worthy of an NIT bid because they looked so slow and dysfunctional on offense, and their 2-3 matchup zone defense had been exposed. But Hurdle's emergence in the stretch of games that began in Blacksburg and culminated in a resounding win at home over Maryland changed the Hurricanes season and the way they moved the ball on offense. But since that game Hurdle has been inconsistent. He was terrible @ Clemson, @ FSU, and Friday vs Va Tech. He was great Thursday vs NC State, vs BC and vs Virginia. Not so coincidently when Hurdle is on the Hurricanes have won seven straight, and when he's been off they haven't won since January. Hurdle was on against Duke, so Miami slayed a giant. Hurdle was off against FSU twice giving the Noles a sweep of their biggest league rival.

Dwayne Collins must post up and be aggressive on the boards

Dwayne Collins poor play the last four games has been mystifying. After dominating in the paint the whole month of February, March has shown Collins to be a step slower, and even worse a step lazier with lots of silly off the ball fouls and an unwillingness to go strong at his man to the basket. Collins also has failed to set a single effective pick that I recall in the last three games. Simply put, I fear the big man has run out of gas.

Brian Asbury Must Show Up

Brian Asbury is a swing man who is difficult to guard when his head is in the game. Asbury can blow by defenders on the dribble and also hit outside jumpers. He is also the only decent man to man perimeter defender on the team and thus Frank Haith has had to resort to play almost purely zone this season. But Asbury often times doesn't show up. He was benched midway through the season and on regular occasions simply takes the day off. We saw how mentally fragile Asbury was as a freshman when the Canes were looking for any sort of bench scoring to make an NCAA push. As a sophomore he was the best player on a bad team. As a junior he has been a non factor more often than not on a likely tournament team. To sum up Asbury's career he's been frustrating and ineffective when we needed him most, and great when the games haven't mattered and we've been lousy anyway. He must step up.