Saturday Picks

Florida 28 Tennessee 17

It has been a long time since a clear talent gap existed between Florida and Tennessee in the favor of the Gators. Tennessee, much like Miami who we will talk about later, and Florida State in the 2001-2005 time period have had many recruiting flameouts while the Gators have not missed on many players. (Gator fans will never admit it, but Ron Zook's percentage of effective recruits was far better than rivals Tennessee, FSU and Miami's in the same period against coaches who had all won national titles)

Tennessee's defense is torn up by injury and on the other side of the ball Florida's awesome front 4 should man handle the shaky Vols offensive line. The Gators win easily.

Florida State 19 Clemson 7

Florida State really bothers me. As most readers of this website know, I am super high on their talent and firmly believe Bobby Bowden has done a yeomans job of raising the talent level in Tallahassee back to the awesome levels of the 1990s. But Bowden is beyond everything else overly protective of his son, even saying this week he didn't care that FSU is dead last in rushing in the nation. (FSU was last in the ACC last season in rushing) I have picked FSU to play for the national title, but they don't stand a chance of meeting my expectations unless this attitude changes from the Bowden's. Florida State has two future NFL tailbacks yet they make no attempt to utilize either guy (neither of which should have bought Bowden's b/s and come to FSU) properly. FSU gets by Clemson, because the Tigers are the ultimate ACC choke artists, but if the Noles don't learn to at least make defenses respect the run, they will drop an unexpected game or two later in the year to some team who isn't nearly as talented.


Louisville 41 Miami 10

All week long we have been hearing about how Miami has never lost as an underdog under Larry Coker.

Let's hearken back to some other streaks of note from the Coker era that have been snapped in classic fashion.

• Miami's 35 game winning streak. Snapped by Ohio State (2002)
• Miami's 39 game regular season winning streak. Snapped in a blowout at Blacksburg by Va Tech (2003)
• Miami's 25 game home winning streak snapped in an awful performance by a mediocre Tennessee team. (2003)
• Miami's 41 game home winning streak against unranked teams. Snapped by a Clemson team that was defeated by Duke the following week. (2004)
• Miami's 6 game winning streak versus Florida State. Snapped when Miami couldn't properly execute a field goal. (2005)
• Miami's 11 game winning streak against D1 teams from the state of Florida. Snapped the same day. (2005)
• Miami's 8 game home winning streak against teams from the state of Florida. Snapped two weeks ago as Miami gained 17 total yards in the second half of a 3 point loss to Florida State. (2006)

Two more streaks will be snapped on Saturday:

• Miami has not lost as an underdog under Larry Coker. Last loss was to Virginia Tech in 1999.
• Miami has not lost a non-conference road game under Larry Coker. Last loss was to Washington in September 2000.

Miami has some current streaks that they will likely keep active after Saturday.

• Miami has not scored a fourth quarter touchdown against Division 1 A opposition since October 29, 2005.
• Kyle Wright has not thrown a 4th quarter TD pass since September 24, 2005.
• Miami has lost its last three games against opponents ranked the following week.
• Miami has not had a 100 yard rushing game since November 12, 2005 versus Wake Forest.

Miami's defense, that has been hyped by among others ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit isn't nearly as good as people think. The defense has no big playmakers, inexperienced corners, and a defensive line who can't lay a hand on the Quarterback. The Hurricane offense should be run oriented, but with Tyrone moss still not 100% and the offensive line reeling due to injury and inexperience, how can Miami possibly stay in the game?

Miami will be torched by Louisville, in a shameful performance that will once and for all expose all of the Hurricanes' weaknesses that FSU could not exploit. Peach Bowl redux.

Central Florida 21 South Florida 17

USF last minute comeback to defeat FIU proved that QB Matt Grothe who is just a freshman could do some great things for USF before he leaves Tampa. Jim Leavitt was happy with the character his team showed late in the game since they were being physically dominated. However, Central Florida will come out fired up after being humiliated in Gainesville and considering USF sold only 2,000 tickets to this game, the stadium will be filled with black and gold. Central Florida wins the battle for 1-4.