I hadn't realized how damaging Miami's loss to NC State was from a bowl qualification standpoint until today. Assuming NC State and Georgia Tech, both of which have favorable closing schedules get to 6 wins, it will likely mean Miami will have to win 7 or perhaps 8 games to get an invite to a bowl. In fact 6 wins unlike last season WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MIAMI TO BE INVITED TO A BOWL. Here's why:
- The ACC is likely to have nine bowl eligible teams with only 8 bowl spots open.
- If Miami finishes 6-6 along with NC State and Georgia Tech, the bottom two ACC bowl games will take the Wolfpack and Jackets not only because both beat Miami but also because both will send more fans to Boise and San Fransisco.
- If Maryland gets to 6-6 (which likely means NC state will not) then any bowl game will take the Terps over the Canes because of traveling fans.
- Even at 7-5, the bowls could pass on Miami and pick NC State, Maryland or Georgia Tech. Most of these lower tier December bowl games struggle to break even so selecting Miami unless they are mandated to is high risk, low reward.
- Another 7-5 scenario for you. If both NC State and Georgia Tech win out, while Florida State or Wake Forest lose multiple games. This will bunch the ACC up around 7-5 and effectively finish the Canes off. Again, a bowl may take the Canes over Wake Forest (something that I feel would be unjust) but Miami will not get an invitation over any other ACC school under any circumstance if a bowl has a choice of who to pick.
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Although I agree with you concerning the bleakness of Miami's bowl hopes, there is one caveat that should be mentioned that can work for or against Miami. No 6-6 team can be selected if a 7-5 team is still available. At 6-6 Miami would be in big trouble. At 7-5, they would be a virtual guarantee.
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